DA Price Forecast
Day-ahead electricity price · DE-LU bidding zone
Delivery date
2026-04-25
Mean forecast
31.06 EUR/MWh
Range
-30.07 – 77.54 EUR
Avg uncertainty
45.35 EUR/MWh
Forecast vs actual — 2026-04-25 click line name to show/hide
P50 is the median forecast. P10–P90 is the 80% prediction interval. Actual DA prices shown in white. MAE: 40.25 EUR/MWh.
Forecast vs outturn — daily averages (last 30 days) click line name to show/hide
Daily mean DA price: forecast (P50 average) vs actual outturn. The grey bars show the absolute error per day. Last 7 days avg MAE: 28.0 EUR/MWh.
Hourly forecast vs outturn — recent days click legend item to show/hide
Hourly comparison: P50 forecast (amber), actual price (white), and the P10–P90 confidence band (shaded). Error bars below show forecast minus actual for each hour.
Model performance (backtest)
Test MAE
14.81 EUR/MWh
Test RMSE
20.43 EUR/MWh
80% interval coverage
62.8%
Skill vs persistence
40.3%
Feature importance (top 10)
Error analysis
11.9
MAE (EUR/MWh)
7.11
Median |error|
-1.0
Mean bias
35.91
P95 |error|
78.9%
80% CI coverage
19,398
Hours analysed
MAE & bias by hour of day click metric to show/hide
MAE & bias by day of week click metric to show/hide
MAE & bias by price level click metric to show/hide
MAE by month
Prices: Energy-Charts (Fraunhofer ISE) ·
Generation: SMARD (Bundesnetzagentur, CC BY 4.0) ·
Weather: Open-Meteo ·
Model: LightGBM quantile regression ·
Dual runs: 06:00 + 10:30 CET